Amphenol Corporation (APH) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade B · Bearish
$119.75
$190.91
+59.4%
10/10
B
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $190.91 (+59.4%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$229.03
FCF DCF Model
$220.94
EV/EBITDA
$127.98
Blended Fair Value
$190.91
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
87/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
26.6%
ROIC-WACC Spread
7.5%
D/E Ratio
1.2x
Current Ratio
3.0x
Interest Coverage
16x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 7.5pp (got 19/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.2x (3/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$178.00
+48.6% Upside
18 analysts
Range: $165.00 — $215.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($119.75) is 9.5% below SMA 200 ($132.32). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 68/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+99.3%
Bull Upside
+200.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
Ask AI about this stock
Chat with our AI analyst to ask questions about valuation, risks, or comparisons.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of APH?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Amphenol Corporation (APH) is $190.91. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is APH a buy, sell, or hold?
APH currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is APH a high-quality stock?
Amphenol Corporation has a quality grade of B (87/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 26.6%, ROIC-WACC spread of 7.5%, and D/E ratio of 1.2x.
What type of stock is APH?
APH is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High revenue growth: 21.4%, High P/E: 34.4x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.7%, High revenue volatility: 21.8% std dev, Large cap: $147.3B
What do Wall Street analysts say about APH?
18 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $178.00 for APH, representing +48.6% upside. Targets range from $165.00 to $215.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in APH?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for APH is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +99.3%, with bull case upside of +200.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for APH?
APH is in a bearish trend. Price ($119.75) is 9.5% below SMA 200 ($132.32). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 68/100.
Related Stock Analyses
Best Stocks to Buy
Get the complete analysis
Scenario targets, buy zones, action plan, executive summary, technical analysis, and AI chat. All free.
Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.