Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade C · Unknown
$361.61
$407.67
+12.7%
10/10
C
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 7.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $407.67 (+12.7%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$569.43
FCF DCF Model
$370.42
EV/EBITDA
$314.73
Blended Fair Value
$407.67
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
74/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
14.2%
ROIC-WACC Spread
4.1%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
0.4x
Interest Coverage
5x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 14.2% (need >15%, got 18/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: 4.1pp (got 10/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (11/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.43 (0/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$386.00
+6.7% Upside
24 analysts
Range: $350.00 — $446.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
6.99:1
Expected Return
+29.2%
Bull Upside
+69.9%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 6.99:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MAR?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) is $407.67. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is MAR a buy, sell, or hold?
MAR currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 7.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is MAR a high-quality stock?
Marriott International, Inc. has a quality grade of C (74/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 14.2%, ROIC-WACC spread of 4.1%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is MAR?
MAR is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High revenue growth: 15.1%, High P/E: 37.9x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.7%, High revenue volatility: 21.3% std dev, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical
What do Wall Street analysts say about MAR?
24 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $386.00 for MAR, representing +6.7% upside. Targets range from $350.00 to $446.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in MAR?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MAR is 6.99:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 6.99:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +29.2%, with bull case upside of +69.9% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MAR?
MAR is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.