Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade D · Bearish
$35.92
$21.17
-41.1%
1/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $21.17 (-41.1%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$42.63
FCF DCF Model
$23.63
EV/EBITDA
$14.53
Blended Fair Value
$21.17
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
51/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
6.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-9.1%
D/E Ratio
1.1x
Current Ratio
1.1x
Interest Coverage
2x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 6.8% (need >15%, got 4/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -9.1pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.1x (7/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.0x (5/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$42.00
+16.9% Upside
4 analysts
Range: $40.00 — $44.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($35.92) is 7.1% below SMA 200 ($38.65). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 56/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.98:1
Expected Return
+6.0%
Bull Upside
+32.9%
Bear Downside
-16.7%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.98:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of OXM?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM) is $21.17. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is OXM a buy, sell, or hold?
OXM currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 1/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is OXM a high-quality stock?
Oxford Industries, Inc. has a quality grade of D (51/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 6.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of -9.1%, and D/E ratio of 1.1x.
What type of stock is OXM?
OXM is classified as a "value" in our framework. High dividend: 7.7%, Mature growth: 3.6%, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical, Small cap: $0.5B, Market-like beta: 1.01
What do Wall Street analysts say about OXM?
4 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $42.00 for OXM, representing +16.9% upside. Targets range from $40.00 to $44.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in OXM?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for OXM is 1.98:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.98:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +6.0%, with bull case upside of +32.9% and bear case downside of -16.7%.
What is the current trend for OXM?
OXM is in a bearish trend. Price ($35.92) is 7.1% below SMA 200 ($38.65). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 56/100.
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Last updated: June 11, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.