The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade A · Bearish
$142.31
$179.95
+26.4%
10/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 4.9:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $179.95 (+26.4%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$84.03
FCF DCF Model
$185.00
EV/EBITDA
$185.00
Blended Fair Value
$179.95
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
102/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
30.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
10.1%
D/E Ratio
0.7x
Current Ratio
0.7x
Interest Coverage
23x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 0.7x (8/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.70 (4/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$163.50
+14.9% Upside
22 analysts
Range: $142.00 — $179.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($142.30) is 3.9% below SMA 200 ($148.03). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 34/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
4.94:1
Expected Return
+25.2%
Bull Upside
+49.4%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 4.94:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PG?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) is $179.95. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is PG a buy, sell, or hold?
PG currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 4.9:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is PG a high-quality stock?
The Procter & Gamble Company has a quality grade of A (102/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 30.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of 10.1%, and D/E ratio of 0.7x.
What type of stock is PG?
PG is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. Mature growth: 1.7%, Large cap: $331.4B, Dividend paying: 3.0%, High ROE (compounder): 31.3%, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about PG?
22 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $163.50 for PG, representing +14.9% upside. Targets range from $142.00 to $179.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in PG?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PG is 4.94:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 4.94:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +25.2%, with bull case upside of +49.4% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PG?
PG is in a bearish trend. Price ($142.30) is 3.9% below SMA 200 ($148.03). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 34/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.