Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Stock Analysis
Score BCompounder · Grade A · Bullish
$426.47
$299.49
-29.8%
10/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $299.49 (-29.8%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$554.41
FCF DCF Model
$313.33
EV/EBITDA
$235.69
Blended Fair Value
$299.49
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
94/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
30.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
8.2%
D/E Ratio
1.0x
Current Ratio
1.1x
Interest Coverage
9x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 8.1pp (got 20/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.0x (9/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$459.00
+7.6% Upside
25 analysts
Range: $410.00 — $525.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($426.48) is 12.6% above SMA 200 ($378.85). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 78/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
5.03:1
Expected Return
+26.7%
Bull Upside
+50.3%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 5.03:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ROK?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) is $299.49. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is ROK a buy, sell, or hold?
ROK currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is ROK a high-quality stock?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. has a quality grade of A (94/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 30.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of 8.2%, and D/E ratio of 1.0x.
What type of stock is ROK?
ROK is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 44.2x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.3%, Mature growth: 3.4%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.56, Cyclical sector: Industrials
What do Wall Street analysts say about ROK?
25 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $459.00 for ROK, representing +7.6% upside. Targets range from $410.00 to $525.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in ROK?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ROK is 5.03:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 5.03:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +26.7%, with bull case upside of +50.3% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for ROK?
ROK is in a bullish trend. Price ($426.48) is 12.6% above SMA 200 ($378.85). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 78/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.