Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis
Score BGrowth · Grade B · Bearish
$112.38
$83.06
-26.1%
9/10
B
Growth
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $83.06 (-26.1%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$130.49
FCF DCF Model
$54.99
EV/EBITDA
$35.85
Blended Fair Value
$83.06
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
86/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
9.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-8.0%
D/E Ratio
0.0x
Current Ratio
5.9x
Interest Coverage
99x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 9.4% (need >18%, got 6/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -8.0pp (got 0/25 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$165.00
+46.8% Upside
46 analysts
Range: $115.00 — $200.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($112.38) is 20.4% below SMA 200 ($141.22). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 58/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+54.1%
Bull Upside
+104.8%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of SHOP?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is $83.06. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is SHOP a buy, sell, or hold?
SHOP currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is SHOP a high-quality stock?
Shopify Inc. has a quality grade of B (86/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 9.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of -8.0%, and D/E ratio of 0.0x.
What type of stock is SHOP?
SHOP is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 26.2%, High P/E: 127.7x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 2.82, Large cap: $146.7B
What do Wall Street analysts say about SHOP?
46 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $165.00 for SHOP, representing +46.8% upside. Targets range from $115.00 to $200.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in SHOP?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for SHOP is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +54.1%, with bull case upside of +104.8% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for SHOP?
SHOP is in a bearish trend. Price ($112.38) is 20.4% below SMA 200 ($141.22). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 58/100.
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Last updated: April 10, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.