The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade F · Bullish
$103.46
$134.50
+30.0%
10/10
F
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $134.50 (+30.0%). Significantly undervalued. (Fair value adjusted: model estimate was outside reasonable range.)
FCF DCF Model
$134.50
Blended Fair Value
$134.50
Confidence
Low
Methods
FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround), Revenue Multiple (turnaround)
Quality Analysis
33/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-3.9%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-3.1%
D/E Ratio
1.3x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
-2x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -3.9% (need >12%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -3.1pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.3x (2/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: -1.9x (0/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.81 (6/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$117.00
+13.1% Upside
17 analysts
Range: $100.00 — $134.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($103.45) is 1.7% above SMA 200 ($101.69). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 36/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.54:1
Expected Return
+6.2%
Bull Upside
+40.1%
Bear Downside
-15.8%
Good asymmetry: 2.54:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of SJM?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is $134.50. This is calculated by blending FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround), Revenue Multiple (turnaround) and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is SJM a buy, sell, or hold?
SJM currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is SJM a high-quality stock?
The J. M. Smucker Company has a quality grade of F (33/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -3.9%, ROIC-WACC spread of -3.1%, and D/E ratio of 1.3x.
What type of stock is SJM?
SJM is classified as a "value" in our framework. High dividend: 4.2%, Mature growth: 3.5%, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about SJM?
17 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $117.00 for SJM, representing +13.1% upside. Targets range from $100.00 to $134.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in SJM?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for SJM is 2.54:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.54:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +6.2%, with bull case upside of +40.1% and bear case downside of -15.8%.
What is the current trend for SJM?
SJM is in a bullish trend. Price ($103.45) is 1.7% above SMA 200 ($101.69). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 36/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.