Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade B · Bearish
$46.47
$81.15
+74.6%
8/10
B
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $81.15 (+74.6%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$89.45
FCF DCF Model
$68.69
EV/EBITDA
$92.94
Blended Fair Value
$81.15
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
80/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
13.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-2.3%
D/E Ratio
0.2x
Current Ratio
1.6x
Interest Coverage
19x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 13.0% (need >15%, got 16/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -2.3pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.2x (14/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$75.00
+61.4% Upside
29 analysts
Range: $75.00 — $75.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($46.47) is 25.7% below SMA 200 ($62.54). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 53/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+126.0%
Bull Upside
+200.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of TCOM?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) is $81.15. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is TCOM a buy, sell, or hold?
TCOM currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 8/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is TCOM a high-quality stock?
Trip.com Group Limited has a quality grade of B (80/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 13.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of -2.3%, and D/E ratio of 0.2x.
What type of stock is TCOM?
TCOM is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High revenue growth: 42.9%, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.6%, Low P/E: 6.6x, High revenue volatility: 56.0% std dev, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical
What do Wall Street analysts say about TCOM?
29 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $75.00 for TCOM, representing +61.4% upside. Targets range from $75.00 to $75.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in TCOM?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for TCOM is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +126.0%, with bull case upside of +200.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for TCOM?
TCOM is in a bearish trend. Price ($46.47) is 25.7% below SMA 200 ($62.54). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 53/100.
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Last updated: June 15, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.