Ventas, Inc. (VTR) Stock Analysis
Score BBlue Chip · Grade A · Bullish
$88.31
$51.22
-42.0%
10/10
A
Blue Chip
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
REIT Fair Value: $51.22 (-42.0%). FFO/share: $3.58, P/FFO: 24.6x vs sector avg 16.0x.
PEG-Based EPS
$57.33
FCF DCF Model
$42.06
Blended Fair Value
$51.22
Methods
REIT P/FFO Relative, REIT Dividend Discount
Quality Analysis
92/120 points
Investable (REIT)
Quality Flags
- REIT quality screen: FFO-based metrics used instead of standard ROE/ROIC/D/E
- No dividend data available
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$95.00
+7.6% Upside
20 analysts
Range: $88.00 — $110.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($88.31) is 14.7% above SMA 200 ($76.96). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+77.3%
Bull Upside
+114.3%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of VTR?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Ventas, Inc. (VTR) is $51.22. This is calculated by blending REIT P/FFO Relative, REIT Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is moderate.
Is VTR a buy, sell, or hold?
VTR currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is VTR a high-quality stock?
Ventas, Inc. has a quality grade of A (92/120 points), rated as Investable (REIT). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of —x.
What type of stock is VTR?
VTR is classified as a "blue_chip" in our framework. High P/E: 160.6x, Mature growth: 5.0%, Moderate growth: 5.0%, Dividend paying: 2.2%, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about VTR?
20 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $95.00 for VTR, representing +7.6% upside. Targets range from $88.00 to $110.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in VTR?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for VTR is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +77.3%, with bull case upside of +114.3% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for VTR?
VTR is in a bullish trend. Price ($88.31) is 14.7% above SMA 200 ($76.96). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.