Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade B · Unknown
$225.24
$372.46
+65.4%
10/10
B
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 8.4:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $372.46 (+65.4%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$376.33
FCF DCF Model
$405.43
EV/EBITDA
$335.95
Blended Fair Value
$372.46
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
75/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
31.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
4.3%
D/E Ratio
2.3x
Current Ratio
0.9x
Interest Coverage
5x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 4.3pp (got 11/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 2.3x (1/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.89 (8/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$260.00
+15.4% Upside
25 analysts
Range: $250.00 — $264.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
8.38:1
Expected Return
+46.8%
Bull Upside
+83.8%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 8.38:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of WM?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is $372.46. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is WM a buy, sell, or hold?
WM currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 8.4:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is WM a high-quality stock?
Waste Management, Inc. has a quality grade of B (75/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 31.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of 4.3%, and D/E ratio of 2.3x.
What type of stock is WM?
WM is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 32.7x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.5%, Mature growth: 9.5%, High debt: D/E 2.3x, Cyclical sector: Industrials
What do Wall Street analysts say about WM?
25 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $260.00 for WM, representing +15.4% upside. Targets range from $250.00 to $264.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in WM?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for WM is 8.38:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 8.38:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +46.8%, with bull case upside of +83.8% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for WM?
WM is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.