Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Stock Analysis
Score BCyclical · Grade B · Bullish
$72.36
$47.11
-34.9%
8/10
B
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $47.11 (-34.9%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$94.07
FCF DCF Model
$56.21
EV/EBITDA
$26.42
Blended Fair Value
$47.11
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
81/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
11.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-2.4%
D/E Ratio
0.3x
Current Ratio
2.8x
Interest Coverage
11x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 11.4% (need >12%, got 18/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -2.4pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.3x (13/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$83.50
+15.4% Upside
11 analysts
Range: $75.00 — $89.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($72.36) is 8.0% above SMA 200 ($66.98). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.66:1
Expected Return
+8.0%
Bull Upside
+48.1%
Bear Downside
-29.0%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.66:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of CMC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is $47.11. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is CMC a buy, sell, or hold?
CMC currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 8/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is CMC a high-quality stock?
Commercial Metals Company has a quality grade of B (81/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 11.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of -2.4%, and D/E ratio of 0.3x.
What type of stock is CMC?
CMC is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.0%, Mature growth: -2.2%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.50, Cyclical sector: Basic Materials, Dividend paying: 1.0%
What do Wall Street analysts say about CMC?
11 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $83.50 for CMC, representing +15.4% upside. Targets range from $75.00 to $89.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in CMC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for CMC is 1.66:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.66:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +8.0%, with bull case upside of +48.1% and bear case downside of -29.0%.
What is the current trend for CMC?
CMC is in a bullish trend. Price ($72.36) is 8.0% above SMA 200 ($66.98). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: June 20, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.