Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) Stock Analysis
Score A+Cyclical · Grade A · Bearish
$50.35
$75.72
+50.4%
10/10
A
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $75.72 (+50.4%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$100.70
FCF DCF Model
$100.70
EV/EBITDA
$45.19
Blended Fair Value
$75.72
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
95/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
60.7%
ROIC-WACC Spread
10.9%
D/E Ratio
10.2x
Current Ratio
1.1x
Interest Coverage
4x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 10.1x (0/15 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 11.6pp (need <5.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$68.50
+36.0% Upside
19 analysts
Range: $63.00 — $80.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($50.29) is 11.2% below SMA 200 ($56.61). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 41/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+63.4%
Bull Upside
+135.3%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of LVS?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) is $75.72. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is LVS a buy, sell, or hold?
LVS currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is LVS a high-quality stock?
Las Vegas Sands Corp. has a quality grade of A (95/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 60.7%, ROIC-WACC spread of 10.9%, and D/E ratio of 10.2x.
What type of stock is LVS?
LVS is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. High revenue growth: 51.9%, High debt: D/E 10.1x, High revenue volatility: 73.0% std dev, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical, Dividend paying: 2.2%
What do Wall Street analysts say about LVS?
19 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $68.50 for LVS, representing +36.0% upside. Targets range from $63.00 to $80.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in LVS?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for LVS is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +63.4%, with bull case upside of +135.3% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for LVS?
LVS is in a bearish trend. Price ($50.29) is 11.2% below SMA 200 ($56.61). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 41/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.