Eversource Energy (ES) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade F · Bullish
$68.85
$75.11
+9.1%
4/10
F
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $75.11 (+9.1%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$40.75
FCF DCF Model
$89.50
EV/EBITDA
$57.61
Blended Fair Value
$75.11
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
20/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
4.2%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.5%
D/E Ratio
1.9x
Current Ratio
0.7x
Interest Coverage
2x
FCF Positive Years
0/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 4.2% (need >9%, got 4/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -0.5pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 0/3 years (0/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.9x (6/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.4x (7/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.65 (3/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 8.0pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$75.00
+8.9% Upside
12 analysts
Range: $63.00 — $79.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($68.74) is 2.0% above SMA 200 ($67.37). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+51.5%
Bull Upside
+128.6%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ES?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Eversource Energy (ES) is $75.11. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is ES a buy, sell, or hold?
ES currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 4/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is ES a high-quality stock?
Eversource Energy has a quality grade of F (20/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 4.2%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.5%, and D/E ratio of 1.9x.
What type of stock is ES?
ES is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low P/E: 14.7x, High dividend: 4.5%, Mature growth: 1.0%, High debt: D/E 1.9x, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about ES?
12 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $75.00 for ES, representing +8.9% upside. Targets range from $63.00 to $79.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in ES?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ES is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +51.5%, with bull case upside of +128.6% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for ES?
ES is in a bullish trend. Price ($68.74) is 2.0% above SMA 200 ($67.37). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.