Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Stock Analysis
Score AValue · Grade C · Bullish
$207.22
$235.67
+13.7%
7/10
C
Value
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 3.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $235.67 (+13.7%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$237.69
FCF DCF Model
$269.38
EV/EBITDA
$183.70
Blended Fair Value
$235.67
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
61/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
10.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-1.1%
D/E Ratio
0.4x
Current Ratio
0.4x
Interest Coverage
20x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -1.1pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.4x (13/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.42 (0/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 14.1pp (need <10.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$224.50
+8.3% Upside
29 analysts
Range: $100.00 — $262.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($206.83) is 29.7% above SMA 200 ($159.41). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.98:1
Expected Return
+10.9%
Bull Upside
+34.9%
Bear Downside
-11.7%
Good asymmetry: 2.98:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of FANG?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) is $235.67. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is FANG a buy, sell, or hold?
FANG currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 7/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 3.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is FANG a high-quality stock?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. has a quality grade of C (61/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 10.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of -1.1%, and D/E ratio of 0.4x.
What type of stock is FANG?
FANG is classified as a "value" in our framework. High P/E: 208.9x, High FCF Yield: 9.0%, Mature growth: -1.4%, High revenue volatility: 25.1% std dev, Cyclical sector: Energy
What do Wall Street analysts say about FANG?
29 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $224.50 for FANG, representing +8.3% upside. Targets range from $100.00 to $262.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in FANG?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for FANG is 2.98:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.98:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +10.9%, with bull case upside of +34.9% and bear case downside of -11.7%.
What is the current trend for FANG?
FANG is in a bullish trend. Price ($206.83) is 29.7% above SMA 200 ($159.41). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.