FMC Corporation (FMC) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade F · Bearish
$12.87
$6.89
-46.5%
2/10
F
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $6.89 (-46.4%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$16.73
FCF DCF Model
$4.37
Blended Fair Value
$6.89
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF
Quality Analysis
22/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-23.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-35.5%
D/E Ratio
2.0x
Current Ratio
1.3x
Interest Coverage
-1x
FCF Positive Years
1/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -23.5% (need >12%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -35.5pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 1/3 years (7/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 2.0x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: -1.2x (0/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$14.75
+14.6% Upside
16 analysts
Range: $13.00 — $20.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($12.90) is 37.4% below SMA 200 ($20.62). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 29/100 — Very weak technicals. Multiple bearish signals active.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.97:1
Expected Return
+2.5%
Bull Upside
+36.6%
Bear Downside
-18.6%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.97:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of FMC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of FMC Corporation (FMC) is $6.89. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is FMC a buy, sell, or hold?
FMC currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 2/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is FMC a high-quality stock?
FMC Corporation has a quality grade of F (22/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -23.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of -35.5%, and D/E ratio of 2.0x.
What type of stock is FMC?
FMC is classified as a "value" in our framework. High dividend: 10.3%, Mature growth: -15.6%, High debt: D/E 2.0x, Cyclical sector: Basic Materials, Small cap: $1.6B
What do Wall Street analysts say about FMC?
16 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $14.75 for FMC, representing +14.6% upside. Targets range from $13.00 to $20.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in FMC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for FMC is 1.97:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.97:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +2.5%, with bull case upside of +36.6% and bear case downside of -18.6%.
What is the current trend for FMC?
FMC is in a bearish trend. Price ($12.90) is 37.4% below SMA 200 ($20.62). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 29/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.