IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Stock Analysis
Score A (Speculative)Cyclical · Grade A · Bullish
$47.15
$68.45
+45.2%
6/10
A
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Pre-profit company with 45% upside to fair value. Quality grade A. Pre-profit — revenue growing but no earnings yet.
Pre-profit company with 45% upside to fair value. Quality grade A. Pre-profit — revenue growing but no earnings yet.
For New Investors
Consider entry at current levels ($47.15) with conservative sizing (2-5% of portfolio). Pre-profit company — position size should reflect higher uncertainty.
For Current Holders
Hold position if thesis is intact. Monitor revenue growth and cash runway.
Buy if
- Price drops below $47.91 (30% discount to FV)
- Revenue continues to grow >30% QoQ
- Path to profitability becomes visible (improving margins)
Sell if
- Revenue growth decelerates below 15%
- Cash runway drops below 6 months
- Management significantly dilutes shareholders
- Competitive moat weakens
Valuation
Pre-profit blend: ev_revenue $59.22 (62%), analyst_target $67.25 (37%)
Blended Fair Value
$68.45
Methods
ev_revenue, analyst_target
Quality Analysis
92/120 points
PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade A (92/100)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$62.50
+32.6% Upside
13 analysts
Range: $48.50 — $90.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($47.15) is 0.2% above SMA 200 ($47.07). Bullish trend confirmed.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.85:1
Expected Return
+67.0%
Bull Upside
+161.3%
Bear Downside
-41.9%
Risk/reward ratio of 3.9:1 (VERY_FAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of IONQ?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) is $68.45. This is calculated by blending ev_revenue, analyst_target and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is moderate.
Is IONQ a buy, sell, or hold?
IONQ currently has a SPECULATIVE_BUY rating with a conviction score of 6/10. Pre-profit company with 45% upside to fair value. Quality grade A. Pre-profit — revenue growing but no earnings yet. Consider entry at current levels ($47.15) with conservative sizing (2-5% of portfolio). Pre-profit company — position size should reflect higher uncertainty..
Is IONQ a high-quality stock?
IonQ, Inc. has a quality grade of A (92/120 points), rated as PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade A (92/100). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of 0.0x.
What type of stock is IONQ?
IONQ is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. High P/E: 120.9x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Mature growth: 0.0%, High revenue volatility: 157.3% std dev, High beta (cyclical behavior): 3.05
What do Wall Street analysts say about IONQ?
13 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $62.50 for IONQ, representing +32.6% upside. Targets range from $48.50 to $90.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in IONQ?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for IONQ is 3.85:1, rated as Very Favorable. Risk/reward ratio of 3.9:1 (VERY_FAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges. The expected return is +67.0%, with bull case upside of +161.3% and bear case downside of -41.9%.
What is the current trend for IONQ?
IONQ is in a bullish trend. Price ($47.15) is 0.2% above SMA 200 ($47.07). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.