Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Analysis
Score DCyclical · Grade B · Bearish
$398.36
$113.61
-71.5%
3/10
B
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $113.61 (-71.5%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$70.04
FCF DCF Model
$23.27
EV/EBITDA
$30.85
Blended Fair Value
$113.61
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
80/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-8.8%
D/E Ratio
0.1x
Current Ratio
2.2x
Interest Coverage
13x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 12.8% (need >15%, got 16/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -8.8pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.1x (14/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$450.00
+13.0% Upside
41 analysts
Range: $360.00 — $548.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($398.43) is 2.4% below SMA 200 ($408.38). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 46/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.14:1
Expected Return
+0.2%
Bull Upside
+37.8%
Bear Downside
-33.3%
Poor asymmetry: 1.14:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward.
Verdict: Unfavorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of TSLA?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is $113.61. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is TSLA a buy, sell, or hold?
TSLA currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is TSLA a high-quality stock?
Tesla, Inc. has a quality grade of B (80/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 12.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of -8.8%, and D/E ratio of 0.1x.
What type of stock is TSLA?
TSLA is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. High P/E: 358.9x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Mature growth: 4.2%, High revenue volatility: 24.8% std dev, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.79
What do Wall Street analysts say about TSLA?
41 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $450.00 for TSLA, representing +13.0% upside. Targets range from $360.00 to $548.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in TSLA?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for TSLA is 1.14:1, rated as Unfavorable. Poor asymmetry: 1.14:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward. The expected return is +0.2%, with bull case upside of +37.8% and bear case downside of -33.3%.
What is the current trend for TSLA?
TSLA is in a bearish trend. Price ($398.43) is 2.4% below SMA 200 ($408.38). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 46/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.