The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Stock Analysis
Score BValue · Grade D · Bearish
$23.31
$30.30
+30.0%
9/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Appears undervalued but quality concerns keep the score lower.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $30.30 (+30.0%). Significantly undervalued.
FCF DCF Model
$30.30
Blended Fair Value
$30.30
Confidence
Low
Methods
FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround)
Quality Analysis
45/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-0.9%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-11.9%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
1.1x
Interest Coverage
-5x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -0.9% (need >12%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -11.9pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (10/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: -4.9x (0/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$23.00
-1.3% Upside
19 analysts
Range: $18.00 — $25.00
Rating: Hold
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($23.24) is 3.2% below SMA 200 ($24.01). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 51/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.09:1
Expected Return
+11.9%
Bull Upside
+38.6%
Bear Downside
-12.5%
Excellent asymmetry: 3.09:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of KHC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is $30.30. This is calculated by blending FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround) and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is KHC a buy, sell, or hold?
KHC currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is KHC a high-quality stock?
The Kraft Heinz Company has a quality grade of D (45/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -0.9%, ROIC-WACC spread of -11.9%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is KHC?
KHC is classified as a "value" in our framework. High FCF Yield: 13.2%, High dividend: 6.9%, Mature growth: -0.9%, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive, Proven scale (compounder): $27.6B
What do Wall Street analysts say about KHC?
19 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $23.00 for KHC, representing -1.3% upside. Targets range from $18.00 to $25.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in KHC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for KHC is 3.09:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 3.09:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +11.9%, with bull case upside of +38.6% and bear case downside of -12.5%.
What is the current trend for KHC?
KHC is in a bearish trend. Price ($23.24) is 3.2% below SMA 200 ($24.01). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 51/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.