Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Stock Analysis
Score A+Blue Chip · Grade A · Bullish
$192.51
$228.81
+18.9%
10/10
A
Blue Chip
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $228.81 (+18.9%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$254.91
FCF DCF Model
$288.76
EV/EBITDA
$138.77
Blended Fair Value
$228.81
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
109/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
24.6%
ROIC-WACC Spread
15.3%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
1.0x
Interest Coverage
9x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (10/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.96 (9/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$190.00
-1.3% Upside
14 analysts
Range: $168.00 — $205.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($192.05) is 17.9% above SMA 200 ($162.91). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 80/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+75.1%
Bull Upside
+176.5%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PM?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is $228.81. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is PM a buy, sell, or hold?
PM currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is PM a high-quality stock?
Philip Morris International Inc. has a quality grade of A (109/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 24.6%, ROIC-WACC spread of 15.3%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is PM?
PM is classified as a "blue_chip" in our framework. High P/E: 27.1x, Mature growth: 8.4%, Large cap: $300.0B, Moderate growth: 8.4%, Dividend paying: 3.0%
What do Wall Street analysts say about PM?
14 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $190.00 for PM, representing -1.3% upside. Targets range from $168.00 to $205.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PM?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PM is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +75.1%, with bull case upside of +176.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PM?
PM is in a bullish trend. Price ($192.05) is 17.9% above SMA 200 ($162.91). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 80/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.