Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis
Score BGrowth · Grade D · Bearish
$42.65
$108.53
+154.5%
10/10
D
Growth
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Appears undervalued but quality concerns keep the score lower.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $108.53 (+154.5%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$108.22
FCF DCF Model
$62.58
EV/EBITDA
$127.94
Blended Fair Value
$108.53
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
53/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
44.2%
ROIC-WACC Spread
1.8%
D/E Ratio
2.4x
Current Ratio
1.4x
Interest Coverage
4x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 1.8pp (got 5/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 2.4x (0/15 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 3.1pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$49.00
+14.9% Upside
11 analysts
Range: $46.00 — $55.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($42.51) is 15.4% below SMA 200 ($50.22). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 46/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+75.1%
Bull Upside
+162.6%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of LW?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is $108.53. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is LW a buy, sell, or hold?
LW currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is LW a high-quality stock?
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. has a quality grade of D (53/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 44.2%, ROIC-WACC spread of 1.8%, and D/E ratio of 2.4x.
What type of stock is LW?
LW is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 17.2%, High dividend: 3.5%, High debt: D/E 2.4x, Dividend paying: 3.5%, Strong ROE: 16.9%
What do Wall Street analysts say about LW?
11 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $49.00 for LW, representing +14.9% upside. Targets range from $46.00 to $55.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in LW?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for LW is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +75.1%, with bull case upside of +162.6% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for LW?
LW is in a bearish trend. Price ($42.51) is 15.4% below SMA 200 ($50.22). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 46/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.