MGM Resorts International (MGM) Stock Analysis
Score AGrowth · Grade C · Bullish
$36.09
$94.56
+162.0%
10/10
C
Growth
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $94.56 (+162.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$108.27
FCF DCF Model
$108.27
Blended Fair Value
$94.56
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
72/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
21.1%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-1.1%
D/E Ratio
23.1x
Current Ratio
1.2x
Interest Coverage
2x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -1.1pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 23.1x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.4x (7/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$39.00
+8.1% Upside
19 analysts
Range: $30.00 — $50.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($36.27) is 1.9% above SMA 200 ($35.60). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 56/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+93.5%
Bull Upside
+182.5%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MGM?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of MGM Resorts International (MGM) is $94.56. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is MGM a buy, sell, or hold?
MGM currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is MGM a high-quality stock?
MGM Resorts International has a quality grade of C (72/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 21.1%, ROIC-WACC spread of -1.1%, and D/E ratio of 23.1x.
What type of stock is MGM?
MGM is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 27.3%, High P/E: 49.7x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High FCF Yield: 18.1%, High debt: D/E 23.1x
What do Wall Street analysts say about MGM?
19 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $39.00 for MGM, representing +8.1% upside. Targets range from $30.00 to $50.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in MGM?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MGM is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +93.5%, with bull case upside of +182.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MGM?
MGM is in a bullish trend. Price ($36.27) is 1.9% above SMA 200 ($35.60). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 56/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.