$74.04
$77.88
+5.2%
10/10
A
Value
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 3.2:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $77.88 (+5.2%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$81.87
FCF DCF Model
$96.25
EV/EBITDA
$49.20
Blended Fair Value
$77.88
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
97/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
29.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
19.1%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
0.6x
Interest Coverage
13x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (10/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.61 (2/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 8.1pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$73.50
-0.7% Upside
11 analysts
Range: $64.00 — $77.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($73.91) is 18.3% above SMA 200 ($62.49). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.22:1
Expected Return
+9.6%
Bull Upside
+28.4%
Bear Downside
-8.8%
Excellent asymmetry: 3.22:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MO?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is $77.88. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is MO a buy, sell, or hold?
MO currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 3.2:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is MO a high-quality stock?
Altria Group, Inc. has a quality grade of A (97/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 29.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of 19.1%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is MO?
MO is classified as a "value" in our framework. High dividend: 5.7%, Mature growth: 1.6%, Large cap: $123.6B, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive, Proven scale (compounder): $123.6B
What do Wall Street analysts say about MO?
11 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $73.50 for MO, representing -0.7% upside. Targets range from $64.00 to $77.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in MO?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MO is 3.22:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 3.22:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +9.6%, with bull case upside of +28.4% and bear case downside of -8.8%.
What is the current trend for MO?
MO is in a bullish trend. Price ($73.91) is 18.3% above SMA 200 ($62.49). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.