The Mosaic Company (MOS) Stock Analysis
Score BValue · Grade D · Bearish
$21.57
$28.01
+29.9%
7/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Appears undervalued but quality concerns keep the score lower.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $28.01 (+29.9%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$27.58
FCF DCF Model
$28.03
EV/EBITDA
$28.03
Blended Fair Value
$28.01
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
58/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
5.2%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-6.0%
D/E Ratio
0.4x
Current Ratio
1.3x
Interest Coverage
5x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 5.2% (need >12%, got 3/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -6.0pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.4x (12/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$26.00
+20.6% Upside
18 analysts
Range: $22.00 — $35.00
Rating: Hold
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($21.61) is 21.5% below SMA 200 ($27.53). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 29/100 — Very weak technicals. Multiple bearish signals active.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+61.4%
Bull Upside
+130.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
Ask AI about this stock
Chat with our AI analyst to ask questions about valuation, risks, or comparisons.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MOS?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of The Mosaic Company (MOS) is $28.01. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is MOS a buy, sell, or hold?
MOS currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 7/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is MOS a high-quality stock?
The Mosaic Company has a quality grade of D (58/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 5.2%, ROIC-WACC spread of -6.0%, and D/E ratio of 0.4x.
What type of stock is MOS?
MOS is classified as a "value" in our framework. High P/E: 154.4x, High FCF Yield: 17.6%, High dividend: 4.1%, Mature growth: -11.2%, High revenue volatility: 37.3% std dev
What do Wall Street analysts say about MOS?
18 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $26.00 for MOS, representing +20.6% upside. Targets range from $22.00 to $35.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in MOS?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MOS is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +61.4%, with bull case upside of +130.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MOS?
MOS is in a bearish trend. Price ($21.61) is 21.5% below SMA 200 ($27.53). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 29/100.
Related Stock Analyses
Best Stocks to Buy
Get the complete analysis
Scenario targets, buy zones, action plan, executive summary, technical analysis, and AI chat. All free.
Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.