Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Stock Analysis
Score A+Compounder · Grade A · Bearish
$402.57
$607.76
+51.0%
10/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $607.76 (+51.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$724.63
FCF DCF Model
$724.63
EV/EBITDA
$412.34
Blended Fair Value
$607.76
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
100/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
139.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
11.8%
D/E Ratio
4.0x
Current Ratio
1.0x
Interest Coverage
8x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 4.1x (0/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$502.50
+24.8% Upside
11 analysts
Range: $450.00 — $530.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($401.51) is 6.1% below SMA 200 ($427.37). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 68/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+95.9%
Bull Upside
+200.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MSI?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) is $607.76. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is MSI a buy, sell, or hold?
MSI currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is MSI a high-quality stock?
Motorola Solutions, Inc. has a quality grade of A (100/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 139.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of 11.8%, and D/E ratio of 4.0x.
What type of stock is MSI?
MSI is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 32.4x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.1%, Mature growth: 8.9%, High debt: D/E 4.1x, Moderate growth: 8.9%
What do Wall Street analysts say about MSI?
11 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $502.50 for MSI, representing +24.8% upside. Targets range from $450.00 to $530.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in MSI?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MSI is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +95.9%, with bull case upside of +200.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MSI?
MSI is in a bearish trend. Price ($401.51) is 6.1% below SMA 200 ($427.37). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 68/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.