Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade C · Unknown
$320.40
$317.11
-1.0%
8/10
C
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 5.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $317.11 (-1.0%). Approximately at fair value. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$132.98
FCF DCF Model
$252.83
EV/EBITDA
$416.52
Blended Fair Value
$317.11
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
65/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
17.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
0.1%
D/E Ratio
1.1x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
5x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 0.1pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.1x (8/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.85 (7/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 7.6pp (need <5.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$327.00
+2.1% Upside
17 analysts
Range: $297.00 — $360.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
5.00:1
Expected Return
+21.6%
Bull Upside
+50.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 5.00:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of NSC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) is $317.11. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is NSC a buy, sell, or hold?
NSC currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 8/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 5.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is NSC a high-quality stock?
Norfolk Southern Corporation has a quality grade of C (65/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 17.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of 0.1%, and D/E ratio of 1.1x.
What type of stock is NSC?
NSC is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 26.9x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.7%, Mature growth: -0.1%, Cyclical sector: Industrials, Dividend paying: 1.7%
What do Wall Street analysts say about NSC?
17 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $327.00 for NSC, representing +2.1% upside. Targets range from $297.00 to $360.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in NSC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for NSC is 5.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 5.00:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +21.6%, with bull case upside of +50.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for NSC?
NSC is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.