O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade A · Unknown
$92.06
$97.09
+5.5%
10/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 4.4:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $97.09 (+5.5%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$132.96
FCF DCF Model
$88.34
EV/EBITDA
$94.21
Blended Fair Value
$97.09
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
106/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
23.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
13.6%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
15x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (11/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.77 (5/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$110.00
+19.5% Upside
23 analysts
Range: $105.00 — $115.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
4.39:1
Expected Return
+15.9%
Bull Upside
+44.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 4.39:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ORLY?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is $97.09. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is ORLY a buy, sell, or hold?
ORLY currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 4.4:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is ORLY a high-quality stock?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. has a quality grade of A (106/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 23.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of 13.6%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is ORLY?
ORLY is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 30.0x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical, Moderate growth: 11.8%, Compounder growth range: 11.8%
What do Wall Street analysts say about ORLY?
23 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $110.00 for ORLY, representing +19.5% upside. Targets range from $105.00 to $115.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in ORLY?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ORLY is 4.39:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 4.39:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +15.9%, with bull case upside of +44.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for ORLY?
ORLY is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.