Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) Stock Analysis
Score B (Speculative)Growth · Grade C · Bullish
$28.40
$30.91
+8.8%
4/10
C
Growth
Investment Thesis
Pre-profit company trading near fair value (+9%). Quality grade C. Watch if revenue keeps growing.
Pre-profit company trading near fair value (+9%). Quality grade C. Watch if revenue keeps growing.
For New Investors
Wait for a better entry point. Current price doesn't offer enough margin of safety for a pre-profit company.
For Current Holders
Hold if you have a small position. Do not add more at current prices.
Buy if
- Price drops below $21.64 (30% discount to FV)
- Revenue continues to grow >30% QoQ
- Path to profitability becomes visible (improving margins)
Sell if
- Revenue growth decelerates below 15%
- Cash runway drops below 6 months
- Management significantly dilutes shareholders
- Competitive moat weakens
Valuation
Pre-profit blend: ev_revenue $26.01 (50%), analyst_target $24.20 (30%), rule_of_40 $53.25 (20%)
Blended Fair Value
$30.91
Methods
ev_revenue, analyst_target, rule_of_40
Quality Analysis
55/120 points
PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade C (55/100)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$20.00
-29.6% Upside
10 analysts
Range: $16.00 — $35.00
Rating: Hold
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($28.40) is 63.5% above SMA 200 ($17.37). Bullish trend confirmed.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.51:1
Expected Return
+8.8%
Bull Upside
+52.4%
Bear Downside
-34.7%
Risk/reward ratio of 1.5:1 (NEUTRAL). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of OSCR?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) is $30.91. This is calculated by blending ev_revenue, analyst_target, rule_of_40 and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is moderate.
Is OSCR a buy, sell, or hold?
OSCR currently has a SPECULATIVE_HOLD rating with a conviction score of 4/10. Pre-profit company trading near fair value (+9%). Quality grade C. Watch if revenue keeps growing. Wait for a better entry point. Current price doesn't offer enough margin of safety for a pre-profit company..
Is OSCR a high-quality stock?
Oscar Health, Inc. has a quality grade of C (55/120 points), rated as PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade C (55/100). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of 0.4x.
What type of stock is OSCR?
OSCR is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 31.9%, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High FCF Yield: 14.4%, High revenue volatility: 38.2% std dev, High beta (cyclical behavior): 2.39
What do Wall Street analysts say about OSCR?
10 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $20.00 for OSCR, representing -29.6% upside. Targets range from $16.00 to $35.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in OSCR?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for OSCR is 1.51:1, rated as Neutral. Risk/reward ratio of 1.5:1 (NEUTRAL). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges. The expected return is +8.8%, with bull case upside of +52.4% and bear case downside of -34.7%.
What is the current trend for OSCR?
OSCR is in a bullish trend. Price ($28.40) is 63.5% above SMA 200 ($17.37). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: June 20, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.