PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Analysis
Score AValue · Grade A · Bearish
$111.00
$159.50
+43.7%
10/10
A
Value
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 4.7:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $159.50 (+43.7%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$156.12
FCF DCF Model
$166.49
EV/EBITDA
$149.76
Blended Fair Value
$159.50
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
94/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
22.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
3.9%
D/E Ratio
0.2x
Current Ratio
5.9x
Interest Coverage
4956x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 3.9pp (got 10/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.2x (14/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$145.00
+30.6% Upside
14 analysts
Range: $115.00 — $162.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($110.61) is 11.6% below SMA 200 ($125.10). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 41/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
4.66:1
Expected Return
+30.1%
Bull Upside
+46.6%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 4.66:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PHM?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is $159.50. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is PHM a buy, sell, or hold?
PHM currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 4.7:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is PHM a high-quality stock?
PulteGroup, Inc. has a quality grade of A (94/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 22.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of 3.9%, and D/E ratio of 0.2x.
What type of stock is PHM?
PHM is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.9%, Low P/E: 10.7x, High FCF Yield: 8.3%, Mature growth: 8.7%, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical
What do Wall Street analysts say about PHM?
14 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $145.00 for PHM, representing +30.6% upside. Targets range from $115.00 to $162.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in PHM?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PHM is 4.66:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 4.66:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +30.1%, with bull case upside of +46.6% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PHM?
PHM is in a bearish trend. Price ($110.61) is 11.6% below SMA 200 ($125.10). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 41/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.