RTX Corporation (RTX) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade C · Bearish
$176.91
$277.38
+56.8%
10/10
C
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $277.38 (+56.8%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$307.72
FCF DCF Model
$330.97
EV/EBITDA
$190.89
Blended Fair Value
$277.38
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
64/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
7.9%
ROIC-WACC Spread
0.6%
D/E Ratio
0.6x
Current Ratio
1.0x
Interest Coverage
5x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 7.9% (need >14%, got 7/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: 0.6pp (got 1/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.6x (11/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$227.00
+28.3% Upside
22 analysts
Range: $204.00 — $240.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($176.80) is 1.4% below SMA 200 ($179.32). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 85/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+99.0%
Bull Upside
+200.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of RTX?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of RTX Corporation (RTX) is $277.38. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is RTX a buy, sell, or hold?
RTX currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is RTX a high-quality stock?
RTX Corporation has a quality grade of C (64/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 7.9%, ROIC-WACC spread of 0.6%, and D/E ratio of 0.6x.
What type of stock is RTX?
RTX is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 33.2x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.5%, Cyclical sector: Industrials, Large cap: $238.2B, Moderate growth: 13.3%
What do Wall Street analysts say about RTX?
22 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $227.00 for RTX, representing +28.3% upside. Targets range from $204.00 to $240.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in RTX?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for RTX is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +99.0%, with bull case upside of +200.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for RTX?
RTX is in a bearish trend. Price ($176.80) is 1.4% below SMA 200 ($179.32). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 85/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.