Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) Stock Analysis
Score BCyclical · Grade B · Bearish
$78.65
$51.75
-34.2%
6/10
B
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $51.75 (-34.2%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$55.04
FCF DCF Model
$57.05
EV/EBITDA
$46.65
Blended Fair Value
$51.75
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
82/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
1.2%
D/E Ratio
0.1x
Current Ratio
2.6x
Interest Coverage
33x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 12.3% (need >15%, got 15/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: 1.2pp (got 3/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.1x (14/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$93.00
+18.2% Upside
6 analysts
Range: $92.00 — $94.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($78.65) is 1.2% below SMA 200 ($79.64). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 63/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.73:1
Expected Return
+8.3%
Bull Upside
+48.7%
Bear Downside
-28.2%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.73:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of SKY?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) is $51.75. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is SKY a buy, sell, or hold?
SKY currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 6/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is SKY a high-quality stock?
Champion Homes, Inc. has a quality grade of B (82/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 12.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of 1.2%, and D/E ratio of 0.1x.
What type of stock is SKY?
SKY is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Mature growth: 1.0%, High revenue volatility: 20.2% std dev, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical, Market-like beta: 1.04
What do Wall Street analysts say about SKY?
6 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $93.00 for SKY, representing +18.2% upside. Targets range from $92.00 to $94.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in SKY?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for SKY is 1.73:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.73:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +8.3%, with bull case upside of +48.7% and bear case downside of -28.2%.
What is the current trend for SKY?
SKY is in a bearish trend. Price ($78.65) is 1.2% below SMA 200 ($79.64). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 63/100.
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Last updated: June 15, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.