SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) Stock Analysis
Score AGrowth · Grade C · Bearish
$15.07
$27.51
+82.6%
9/10
C
Growth
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $27.51 (+82.6%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$43.67
FCF DCF Model
$26.72
EV/EBITDA
$22.92
Blended Fair Value
$27.51
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
70/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
2.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-12.1%
D/E Ratio
0.2x
Current Ratio
2.0x
Interest Coverage
0x
FCF Positive Years
0/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Limited revenue history
- Low profitability margins
- Earnings declining
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$19.50
+29.4% Upside
20 analysts
Range: $16.00 — $29.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($15.06) is 35.7% below SMA 200 ($23.42). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 41/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+70.3%
Bull Upside
+151.1%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of SOFI?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) is $27.51. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is SOFI a buy, sell, or hold?
SOFI currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is SOFI a high-quality stock?
SoFi Technologies, Inc. has a quality grade of C (70/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 2.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of -12.1%, and D/E ratio of 0.2x.
What type of stock is SOFI?
SOFI is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 28.4%, High P/E: 33.5x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High revenue volatility: 20.2% std dev, High beta (cyclical behavior): 2.13
What do Wall Street analysts say about SOFI?
20 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $19.50 for SOFI, representing +29.4% upside. Targets range from $16.00 to $29.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in SOFI?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for SOFI is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +70.3%, with bull case upside of +151.1% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for SOFI?
SOFI is in a bearish trend. Price ($15.06) is 35.7% below SMA 200 ($23.42). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 41/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.