Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Stock Analysis
Score D (Speculative)Financial · Grade D · Bearish
$7.51
$6.58
-12.3%
1/10
D
Financial
Investment Thesis
Pre-profit company with limited upside (-12%) and/or quality concerns (grade D).
Pre-profit company with limited upside (-12%) and/or quality concerns (grade D).
For New Investors
Do not initiate a position. Wait for significant price improvement or catalysts.
For Current Holders
Consider reducing position. Downside outweighs upside at current price.
Buy if
- Price drops below $4.61 (30% discount to FV)
- Revenue continues to grow >30% QoQ
- Path to profitability becomes visible (improving margins)
Sell if
- Revenue growth decelerates below 15%
- Cash runway drops below 6 months
- Management significantly dilutes shareholders
- Competitive moat weakens
Valuation
Pre-profit blend: ev_revenue $6.89 (62%), analyst_target $7.00 (37%)
Blended Fair Value
$6.58
Methods
ev_revenue, analyst_target
Quality Analysis
35/120 points
PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade D (35/100)
Quality Flags
- LOW_GROWTH_FOR_PRE_PROFIT
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$7.00
-6.7% Upside
5 analysts
Range: $7.00 — $7.00
Rating: Hold
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($7.53) is 19.7% below SMA 200 ($9.38). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
0.48:1
Expected Return
-17.6%
Bull Upside
+22.7%
Bear Downside
-47.4%
Risk/reward ratio of 0.5:1 (UNFAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges.
Verdict: Unfavorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of SUPV?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) is $6.58. This is calculated by blending ev_revenue, analyst_target and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is moderate.
Is SUPV a buy, sell, or hold?
SUPV currently has a SPECULATIVE_AVOID rating with a conviction score of 1/10. Pre-profit company with limited upside (-12%) and/or quality concerns (grade D). Do not initiate a position. Wait for significant price improvement or catalysts..
Is SUPV a high-quality stock?
Grupo Supervielle S.A. has a quality grade of D (35/120 points), rated as PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade D (35/100). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of 1.0x.
What type of stock is SUPV?
SUPV is classified as a "financial" in our framework. Financial sector override: Financial Services
What do Wall Street analysts say about SUPV?
5 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $7.00 for SUPV, representing -6.7% upside. Targets range from $7.00 to $7.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in SUPV?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for SUPV is 0.48:1, rated as Unfavorable. Risk/reward ratio of 0.5:1 (UNFAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges. The expected return is -17.6%, with bull case upside of +22.7% and bear case downside of -47.4%.
What is the current trend for SUPV?
SUPV is in a bearish trend. Price ($7.53) is 19.7% below SMA 200 ($9.38). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.