T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) Stock Analysis
Score BValue · Grade A · Bullish
$102.11
$93.12
-8.8%
7/10
A
Value
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading near modeled fair value. No strong quantitative signal.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $93.12 (-8.8%). Approximately at fair value. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$33.80
FCF DCF Model
$72.44
EV/EBITDA
$132.75
Blended Fair Value
$93.12
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
103/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
19.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
1.0%
D/E Ratio
0.1x
Current Ratio
73.1x
Interest Coverage
99x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Strong ROE: 19.4%
- Excellent efficiency
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$104.00
+1.8% Upside
Range: $89.00 — $110.00
Rating: Hold
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($102.11) is 2.9% above SMA 200 ($99.21). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 39/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
0.56:1
Expected Return
-2.6%
Bull Upside
+12.0%
Bear Downside
-21.6%
Poor asymmetry: 0.56:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward.
Verdict: Unfavorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of TROW?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) is $93.12. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is TROW a buy, sell, or hold?
TROW currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 7/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is TROW a high-quality stock?
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. has a quality grade of A (103/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 19.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of 1.0%, and D/E ratio of 0.1x.
What type of stock is TROW?
TROW is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low P/E: 11.0x, High dividend: 5.0%, Mature growth: 4.4%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.53, Strong ROE: 19.5%
What do Wall Street analysts say about TROW?
Multiple Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $104.00 for TROW, representing +1.8% upside. Targets range from $89.00 to $110.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in TROW?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for TROW is 0.56:1, rated as Unfavorable. Poor asymmetry: 0.56:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward. The expected return is -2.6%, with bull case upside of +12.0% and bear case downside of -21.6%.
What is the current trend for TROW?
TROW is in a bullish trend. Price ($102.11) is 2.9% above SMA 200 ($99.21). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 39/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.