Textron Inc. (TXT) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade B · Bullish
$88.65
$159.56
+80.0%
10/10
B
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $159.56 (+80.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$159.56
FCF DCF Model
$159.56
EV/EBITDA
$159.56
Blended Fair Value
$159.56
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
89/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.1%
ROIC-WACC Spread
6.6%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
1.8x
Interest Coverage
13x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 12.1% (need >14%, got 16/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: 6.6pp (got 16/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (12/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$109.00
+23.0% Upside
16 analysts
Range: $100.00 — $110.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($88.64) is 1.6% above SMA 200 ($87.24). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+63.0%
Bull Upside
+114.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of TXT?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Textron Inc. (TXT) is $159.56. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is TXT a buy, sell, or hold?
TXT currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is TXT a high-quality stock?
Textron Inc. has a quality grade of B (89/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 12.1%, ROIC-WACC spread of 6.6%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is TXT?
TXT is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.1%, Cyclical sector: Industrials, Moderate growth: 10.7%, Market-like beta: 0.93, Compounder growth range: 10.7%
What do Wall Street analysts say about TXT?
16 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $109.00 for TXT, representing +23.0% upside. Targets range from $100.00 to $110.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in TXT?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for TXT is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +63.0%, with bull case upside of +114.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for TXT?
TXT is in a bullish trend. Price ($88.64) is 1.6% above SMA 200 ($87.24). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.