Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis
Score BBlue Chip · Grade B · Unknown
$134.13
$83.06
-38.1%
9/10
B
Blue Chip
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $83.06 (-38.1%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$91.90
FCF DCF Model
$67.58
EV/EBITDA
$78.55
Blended Fair Value
$83.06
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
82/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
20.6%
ROIC-WACC Spread
5.3%
D/E Ratio
0.7x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
11x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 5.3pp (got 13/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.7x (8/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.79 (6/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$138.50
+3.3% Upside
41 analysts
Range: $120.00 — $150.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.31:1
Expected Return
+9.8%
Bull Upside
+27.1%
Bear Downside
-8.2%
Excellent asymmetry: 3.31:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of WMT?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Walmart Inc. (WMT) is $83.06. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is WMT a buy, sell, or hold?
WMT currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is WMT a high-quality stock?
Walmart Inc. has a quality grade of B (82/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 20.6%, ROIC-WACC spread of 5.3%, and D/E ratio of 0.7x.
What type of stock is WMT?
WMT is classified as a "blue_chip" in our framework. High P/E: 49.1x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.7%, Mature growth: 6.1%, Large cap: $1069.1B, Moderate growth: 6.1%
What do Wall Street analysts say about WMT?
41 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $138.50 for WMT, representing +3.3% upside. Targets range from $120.00 to $150.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in WMT?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for WMT is 3.31:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 3.31:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +9.8%, with bull case upside of +27.1% and bear case downside of -8.2%.
What is the current trend for WMT?
WMT is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.