The AES Corporation (AES) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade F · Unknown
$14.57
$18.94
+30.0%
4/10
F
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $18.94 (+30.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$18.94
FCF DCF Model
$18.94
Blended Fair Value
$18.94
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF
Quality Analysis
32/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
23.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-1.8%
D/E Ratio
4.4x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
1x
FCF Positive Years
0/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -1.8pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 0/3 years (0/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 4.4x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 1.4x (2/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.77 (5/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$17.00
+16.7% Upside
9 analysts
Range: $16.00 — $23.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.45:1
Expected Return
+5.9%
Bull Upside
+40.2%
Bear Downside
-16.4%
Good asymmetry: 2.45:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of AES?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of The AES Corporation (AES) is $18.94. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is AES a buy, sell, or hold?
AES currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 4/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is AES a high-quality stock?
The AES Corporation has a quality grade of F (32/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 23.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of -1.8%, and D/E ratio of 4.4x.
What type of stock is AES?
AES is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low P/E: 7.6x, High FCF Yield: 11.8%, High dividend: 4.8%, Mature growth: -3.2%, High debt: D/E 4.4x
What do Wall Street analysts say about AES?
9 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $17.00 for AES, representing +16.7% upside. Targets range from $16.00 to $23.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in AES?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for AES is 2.45:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.45:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +5.9%, with bull case upside of +40.2% and bear case downside of -16.4%.
What is the current trend for AES?
AES is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.