Centene Corporation (CNC) Stock Analysis
Score DGrowth · Grade F · Bullish
$58.84
$151.42
+157.3%
9/10
F
Growth
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $151.42 (+157.3%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$176.52
FCF DCF Model
$176.52
Blended Fair Value
$151.42
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
31/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-3.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-24.4%
D/E Ratio
0.9x
Current Ratio
1.7x
Interest Coverage
-11x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -3.5% (need >15%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -24.4pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.9x (8/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: -11.2x (0/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$58.00
-1.4% Upside
17 analysts
Range: $39.00 — $63.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($58.98) is 53.1% above SMA 200 ($38.51). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 80/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+56.6%
Bull Upside
+155.5%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of CNC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Centene Corporation (CNC) is $151.42. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is CNC a buy, sell, or hold?
CNC currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is CNC a high-quality stock?
Centene Corporation has a quality grade of F (31/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -3.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of -24.4%, and D/E ratio of 0.9x.
What type of stock is CNC?
CNC is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 16.4%, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High FCF Yield: 14.9%, Market-like beta: 1.06
What do Wall Street analysts say about CNC?
17 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $58.00 for CNC, representing -1.4% upside. Targets range from $39.00 to $63.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in CNC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for CNC is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +56.6%, with bull case upside of +155.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for CNC?
CNC is in a bullish trend. Price ($58.98) is 53.1% above SMA 200 ($38.51). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 80/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.