CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Stock Analysis
Score BBlue Chip · Grade D · Bullish
$94.82
$111.91
+18.0%
5/10
D
Blue Chip
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Appears undervalued but quality concerns keep the score lower.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $111.91 (+18.0%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$142.23
FCF DCF Model
$142.23
EV/EBITDA
$48.94
Blended Fair Value
$111.91
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
51/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
6.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-2.3%
D/E Ratio
1.2x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
3x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 6.5% (need >15%, got 3/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -2.3pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.2x (6/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.84 (7/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$99.50
+4.9% Upside
26 analysts
Range: $90.00 — $107.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($94.81) is 24.3% above SMA 200 ($76.27). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 80/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
4.35:1
Expected Return
+16.0%
Bull Upside
+43.5%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 4.35:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
Ask AI about this stock
Chat with our AI analyst to ask questions about valuation, risks, or comparisons.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of CVS?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of CVS Health Corporation (CVS) is $111.91. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is CVS a buy, sell, or hold?
CVS currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 5/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is CVS a high-quality stock?
CVS Health Corporation has a quality grade of D (51/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 6.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of -2.3%, and D/E ratio of 1.2x.
What type of stock is CVS?
CVS is classified as a "blue_chip" in our framework. High P/E: 41.6x, Mature growth: 8.9%, Large cap: $121.0B, Moderate growth: 8.9%, Dividend paying: 2.8%
What do Wall Street analysts say about CVS?
26 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $99.50 for CVS, representing +4.9% upside. Targets range from $90.00 to $107.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in CVS?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for CVS is 4.35:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 4.35:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +16.0%, with bull case upside of +43.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for CVS?
CVS is in a bullish trend. Price ($94.81) is 24.3% above SMA 200 ($76.27). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 80/100.
Related Stock Analyses
Best Stocks to Buy
Get the complete analysis
Scenario targets, buy zones, action plan, executive summary, technical analysis, and AI chat. All free.
Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.