Incyte Corporation (INCY) Stock Analysis
Score A+Compounder · Grade A · Bullish
$95.86
$179.39
+87.1%
10/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $179.39 (+87.1%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$191.72
FCF DCF Model
$191.72
EV/EBITDA
$191.72
Blended Fair Value
$179.39
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
115/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
10.8%
D/E Ratio
0.0x
Current Ratio
3.3x
Interest Coverage
553x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 12.5% (need >15%, got 15/20 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$108.50
+13.2% Upside
22 analysts
Range: $90.00 — $135.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($96.00) is 1.0% above SMA 200 ($95.06). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+109.4%
Bull Upside
+200.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of INCY?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Incyte Corporation (INCY) is $179.39. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is INCY a buy, sell, or hold?
INCY currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is INCY a high-quality stock?
Incyte Corporation has a quality grade of A (115/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 12.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of 10.8%, and D/E ratio of 0.0x.
What type of stock is INCY?
INCY is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High revenue growth: 19.9%, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Low P/E: 13.6x, Strong ROE: 29.3%, Compounder growth range: 19.9%
What do Wall Street analysts say about INCY?
22 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $108.50 for INCY, representing +13.2% upside. Targets range from $90.00 to $135.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in INCY?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for INCY is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +109.4%, with bull case upside of +200.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for INCY?
INCY is in a bullish trend. Price ($96.00) is 1.0% above SMA 200 ($95.06). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.