Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis
Score A+Blue Chip · Grade A · Bullish
$526.35
$671.17
+27.5%
10/10
A
Blue Chip
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 4.7:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $671.17 (+27.5%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$789.53
FCF DCF Model
$789.53
EV/EBITDA
$425.35
Blended Fair Value
$671.17
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
100/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
86.7%
ROIC-WACC Spread
12.1%
D/E Ratio
3.2x
Current Ratio
1.1x
Interest Coverage
7x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 3.2x (0/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$654.00
+24.3% Upside
20 analysts
Range: $517.00 — $700.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is significantly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($526.49) is 0.1% above SMA 200 ($525.71). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 85/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
4.71:1
Expected Return
+25.4%
Bull Upside
+47.1%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 4.71:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of LMT?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is $671.17. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is LMT a buy, sell, or hold?
LMT currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 4.7:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is LMT a high-quality stock?
Lockheed Martin Corporation has a quality grade of A (100/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 86.7%, ROIC-WACC spread of 12.1%, and D/E ratio of 3.2x.
What type of stock is LMT?
LMT is classified as a "blue_chip" in our framework. High P/E: 25.5x, Mature growth: 9.1%, High debt: D/E 3.2x, Cyclical sector: Industrials, Large cap: $121.4B
What do Wall Street analysts say about LMT?
20 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $654.00 for LMT, representing +24.3% upside. Targets range from $517.00 to $700.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is significantly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in LMT?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for LMT is 4.71:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 4.71:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +25.4%, with bull case upside of +47.1% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for LMT?
LMT is in a bullish trend. Price ($526.49) is 0.1% above SMA 200 ($525.71). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 85/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.