Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Stock Analysis
Score BFinancial · Grade A · Bearish
$501.46
$256.89
-48.8%
9/10
A
Financial
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $256.89 (-48.8%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$30.18
FCF DCF Model
$280.36
Blended Fair Value
$256.89
Confidence
Low
Methods
P/B Relative, P/E Relative
Quality Analysis
110/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
184.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
47.1%
D/E Ratio
2.5x
Current Ratio
1.0x
Interest Coverage
27x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Strong ROE: 184.5%
- Excellent efficiency
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$657.50
+31.1% Upside
36 analysts
Range: $561.00 — $739.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($500.82) is 7.8% below SMA 200 ($543.00). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 58/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
7.20:1
Expected Return
+43.8%
Bull Upside
+72.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 7.20:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MA?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is $256.89. This is calculated by blending P/B Relative, P/E Relative and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is MA a buy, sell, or hold?
MA currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is MA a high-quality stock?
Mastercard Incorporated has a quality grade of A (110/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 184.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of 47.1%, and D/E ratio of 2.5x.
What type of stock is MA?
MA is classified as a "financial" in our framework. Financial sector override: Financial Services
What do Wall Street analysts say about MA?
36 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $657.50 for MA, representing +31.1% upside. Targets range from $561.00 to $739.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in MA?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MA is 7.20:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 7.20:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +43.8%, with bull case upside of +72.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MA?
MA is in a bearish trend. Price ($500.82) is 7.8% below SMA 200 ($543.00). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 58/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.