Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PEG) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade D · Bearish
$77.40
$42.89
-44.6%
1/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $42.89 (-44.6%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$48.29
FCF DCF Model
$23.14
EV/EBITDA
$43.13
Blended Fair Value
$42.89
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
57/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
13.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.3%
D/E Ratio
1.4x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
3x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -0.3pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.4x (8/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.80 (6/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 16.9pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$91.00
+17.6% Upside
18 analysts
Range: $81.00 — $98.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($77.40) is 4.4% below SMA 200 ($80.97). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 38/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
9.00:1
Expected Return
+44.0%
Bull Upside
+90.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 9.00:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PEG?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PEG) is $42.89. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is PEG a buy, sell, or hold?
PEG currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 1/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is PEG a high-quality stock?
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated has a quality grade of D (57/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 13.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.3%, and D/E ratio of 1.4x.
What type of stock is PEG?
PEG is classified as a "value" in our framework. High dividend: 3.3%, Mature growth: 7.4%, Moderate growth: 7.4%, Dividend paying: 3.3%
What do Wall Street analysts say about PEG?
18 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $91.00 for PEG, representing +17.6% upside. Targets range from $81.00 to $98.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PEG?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PEG is 9.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 9.00:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +44.0%, with bull case upside of +90.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PEG?
PEG is in a bearish trend. Price ($77.40) is 4.4% below SMA 200 ($80.97). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 38/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.