PPL Corporation (PPL) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade F · Bearish
$35.20
$32.67
-7.2%
3/10
F
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $32.67 (-7.2%). Approximately at fair value.
PEG-Based EPS
$29.54
FCF DCF Model
$40.66
EV/EBITDA
$23.71
Blended Fair Value
$32.67
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
35/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
6.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-1.5%
D/E Ratio
1.3x
Current Ratio
0.9x
Interest Coverage
3x
FCF Positive Years
0/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 6.5% (need >9%, got 12/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -1.5pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 0/3 years (0/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.3x (8/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.6x (8/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.86 (7/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 3.9pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$41.00
+16.5% Upside
15 analysts
Range: $39.00 — $48.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($35.15) is 3.2% below SMA 200 ($36.31). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 68/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+78.5%
Bull Upside
+170.6%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PPL?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of PPL Corporation (PPL) is $32.67. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is PPL a buy, sell, or hold?
PPL currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is PPL a high-quality stock?
PPL Corporation has a quality grade of F (35/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 6.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of -1.5%, and D/E ratio of 1.3x.
What type of stock is PPL?
PPL is classified as a "value" in our framework. High dividend: 3.1%, Mature growth: 4.4%, Dividend paying: 3.1%, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive, Proven scale (compounder): $26.5B
What do Wall Street analysts say about PPL?
15 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $41.00 for PPL, representing +16.5% upside. Targets range from $39.00 to $48.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PPL?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PPL is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +78.5%, with bull case upside of +170.6% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PPL?
PPL is in a bearish trend. Price ($35.15) is 3.2% below SMA 200 ($36.31). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 68/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.