Quantum Corporation (QMCO) Stock Analysis
Score D (Speculative)Compounder · Grade F · Bullish
$13.74
$1.96
-85.7%
1/10
F
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Pre-profit company with limited upside (-86%) and/or quality concerns (grade F).
Pre-profit company with limited upside (-86%) and/or quality concerns (grade F).
For New Investors
Do not initiate a position. Wait for significant price improvement or catalysts.
For Current Holders
Consider reducing position. Downside outweighs upside at current price.
Buy if
- Price drops below $1.37 (30% discount to FV)
- Revenue continues to grow >30% QoQ
- Path to profitability becomes visible (improving margins)
Sell if
- Revenue growth decelerates below 15%
- Cash runway drops below 6 months
- Management significantly dilutes shareholders
- Competitive moat weakens
Valuation
Pre-profit blend: ev_revenue $1.58 (62%), analyst_target $3.16 (37%)
Blended Fair Value
$1.96
Methods
ev_revenue, analyst_target
Quality Analysis
15/120 points
PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade F (15/100)
Quality Flags
- SHORT_RUNWAY
- LOW_GROWTH_FOR_PRE_PROFIT
- MICRO_CAP
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$20.00
+45.6% Upside
2 analysts
Range: $20.00 — $20.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($13.74) is 72.3% above SMA 200 ($7.98). Bullish trend confirmed.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
-0.88:1
Expected Return
-86.9%
Bull Upside
+-80.1%
Bear Downside
-91.4%
Risk/reward ratio of -0.9:1 (UNFAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges.
Verdict: Unfavorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of QMCO?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Quantum Corporation (QMCO) is $1.96. This is calculated by blending ev_revenue, analyst_target and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is moderate.
Is QMCO a buy, sell, or hold?
QMCO currently has a SPECULATIVE_AVOID rating with a conviction score of 1/10. Pre-profit company with limited upside (-86%) and/or quality concerns (grade F). Do not initiate a position. Wait for significant price improvement or catalysts..
Is QMCO a high-quality stock?
Quantum Corporation has a quality grade of F (15/120 points), rated as PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade F (15/100). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is QMCO?
QMCO is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High FCF Yield: 47.9%, Mature growth: -25.8%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 2.99, Small cap: $0.1B
What do Wall Street analysts say about QMCO?
2 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $20.00 for QMCO, representing +45.6% upside. Targets range from $20.00 to $20.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in QMCO?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for QMCO is -0.88:1, rated as Unfavorable. Risk/reward ratio of -0.9:1 (UNFAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges. The expected return is -86.9%, with bull case upside of +-80.1% and bear case downside of -91.4%.
What is the current trend for QMCO?
QMCO is in a bullish trend. Price ($13.74) is 72.3% above SMA 200 ($7.98). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: June 12, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.