Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis
Score BBlue Chip · Grade D · Bullish
$106.85
$62.94
-41.1%
4/10
D
Blue Chip
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading above fair value.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $62.94 (-41.1%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$84.46
FCF DCF Model
$58.96
EV/EBITDA
$48.59
Blended Fair Value
$62.94
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
58/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
8.7%
ROIC-WACC Spread
0.3%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
0.7x
Interest Coverage
7x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 8.7% (need >15%, got 7/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: 0.3pp (got 1/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (11/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.72 (4/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$111.50
+4.4% Upside
33 analysts
Range: $90.00 — $120.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($106.84) is 19.0% above SMA 200 ($89.74). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.88:1
Expected Return
+13.9%
Bull Upside
+38.8%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 3.88:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of SBUX?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is $62.94. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is SBUX a buy, sell, or hold?
SBUX currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 4/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is SBUX a high-quality stock?
Starbucks Corporation has a quality grade of D (58/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 8.7%, ROIC-WACC spread of 0.3%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is SBUX?
SBUX is classified as a "blue_chip" in our framework. High P/E: 81.6x, Mature growth: 5.3%, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical, Large cap: $121.8B, Moderate growth: 5.3%
What do Wall Street analysts say about SBUX?
33 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $111.50 for SBUX, representing +4.4% upside. Targets range from $90.00 to $120.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in SBUX?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for SBUX is 3.88:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 3.88:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +13.9%, with bull case upside of +38.8% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for SBUX?
SBUX is in a bullish trend. Price ($106.84) is 19.0% above SMA 200 ($89.74). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.