Deere & Company (DE) Stock Analysis
Score ABlue Chip · Grade C · Bullish
$560.69
$518.16
-7.6%
8/10
C
Blue Chip
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 3.8:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $518.16 (-7.6%). Approximately at fair value.
PEG-Based EPS
$642.30
FCF DCF Model
$580.91
EV/EBITDA
$405.38
Blended Fair Value
$518.16
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
67/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
32.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
1.5%
D/E Ratio
2.5x
Current Ratio
2.3x
Interest Coverage
3x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 1.5pp (got 4/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 2.5x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.7x (8/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$730.00
+30.2% Upside
23 analysts
Range: $458.00 — $793.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($560.48) is 8.2% above SMA 200 ($517.82). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.76:1
Expected Return
+15.6%
Bull Upside
+37.6%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 3.76:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of DE?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Deere & Company (DE) is $518.16. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is DE a buy, sell, or hold?
DE currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 8/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 3.8:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is DE a high-quality stock?
Deere & Company has a quality grade of C (67/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 32.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of 1.5%, and D/E ratio of 2.5x.
What type of stock is DE?
DE is classified as a "blue_chip" in our framework. High P/E: 31.6x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.2%, Mature growth: -0.7%, High debt: D/E 2.5x, Cyclical sector: Industrials
What do Wall Street analysts say about DE?
23 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $730.00 for DE, representing +30.2% upside. Targets range from $458.00 to $793.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in DE?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for DE is 3.76:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 3.76:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +15.6%, with bull case upside of +37.6% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for DE?
DE is in a bullish trend. Price ($560.48) is 8.2% above SMA 200 ($517.82). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.