Figma, Inc. (FIG) Stock Analysis
Score BGrowth · Grade C · Bearish
$18.54
$18.51
-0.2%
8/10
C
Growth
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading near modeled fair value. No strong quantitative signal.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $18.51 (-0.2%). Approximately at fair value.
PEG-Based EPS
$16.24
FCF DCF Model
$16.81
Blended Fair Value
$18.51
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
70/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
-36.9%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-106.8%
D/E Ratio
0.1x
Current Ratio
2.6x
Interest Coverage
3x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -36.9% (need >18%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -106.8pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.1x (14/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.5x (8/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 4.5pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$32.50
+75.3% Upside
8 analysts
Range: $25.00 — $42.00
Rating: Hold
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($18.54) is 47.0% below SMA 200 ($34.96). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 29/100 — Very weak technicals. Multiple bearish signals active.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+57.8%
Bull Upside
+119.9%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of FIG?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Figma, Inc. (FIG) is $18.51. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is FIG a buy, sell, or hold?
FIG currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 8/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is FIG a high-quality stock?
Figma, Inc. has a quality grade of C (70/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of -36.9%, ROIC-WACC spread of -106.8%, and D/E ratio of 0.1x.
What type of stock is FIG?
FIG is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 25.9%, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Market-like beta: 1.17
What do Wall Street analysts say about FIG?
8 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $32.50 for FIG, representing +75.3% upside. Targets range from $25.00 to $42.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in FIG?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for FIG is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +57.8%, with bull case upside of +119.9% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for FIG?
FIG is in a bearish trend. Price ($18.54) is 47.0% below SMA 200 ($34.96). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 29/100.
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Last updated: June 15, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.