Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Stock Analysis
Score BCyclical · Grade D · Bullish
$62.10
$124.20
+100.0%
4/10
D
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Appears undervalued but quality concerns keep the score lower.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $124.20 (+100.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$124.20
FCF DCF Model
$124.20
Blended Fair Value
$124.20
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF
Quality Analysis
59/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
5.6%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-8.2%
D/E Ratio
2.3x
Current Ratio
2.4x
Interest Coverage
0x
FCF Positive Years
0/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Limited revenue history
- Low profitability margins
- Earnings declining
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$57.00
-8.2% Upside
6 analysts
Range: $50.00 — $87.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($62.10) is 14.7% above SMA 200 ($54.16). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 53/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.74:1
Expected Return
+24.7%
Bull Upside
+83.0%
Bear Downside
-30.3%
Good asymmetry: 2.74:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of JEF?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) is $124.20. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is JEF a buy, sell, or hold?
JEF currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 4/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is JEF a high-quality stock?
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. has a quality grade of D (59/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 5.6%, ROIC-WACC spread of -8.2%, and D/E ratio of 2.3x.
What type of stock is JEF?
JEF is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. High revenue growth: 20.3%, High FCF Yield: 12.8%, High debt: D/E 2.2x, High revenue volatility: 25.4% std dev, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.53
What do Wall Street analysts say about JEF?
6 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $57.00 for JEF, representing -8.2% upside. Targets range from $50.00 to $87.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in JEF?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for JEF is 2.74:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.74:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +24.7%, with bull case upside of +83.0% and bear case downside of -30.3%.
What is the current trend for JEF?
JEF is in a bullish trend. Price ($62.10) is 14.7% above SMA 200 ($54.16). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 53/100.
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Last updated: June 20, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.