JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Stock Analysis
Score BFinancial · Grade B · Bullish
$312.47
$260.34
-16.7%
7/10
B
Financial
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $260.34 (-16.7%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$278.31
FCF DCF Model
$286.75
Blended Fair Value
$260.34
Confidence
High
Methods
P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount
Quality Analysis
75/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
15.9%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-5.5%
D/E Ratio
2.6x
Current Ratio
0.5x
Interest Coverage
1x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Strong ROE: 15.9%
- Low profitability margins
- Earnings declining
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$332.00
+6.3% Upside
22 analysts
Range: $295.00 — $391.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($312.47) is 3.4% above SMA 200 ($302.25). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 51/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
6.85:1
Expected Return
+38.5%
Bull Upside
+68.5%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 6.85:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of JPM?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is $260.34. This is calculated by blending P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is JPM a buy, sell, or hold?
JPM currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 7/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is JPM a high-quality stock?
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has a quality grade of B (75/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 15.9%, ROIC-WACC spread of -5.5%, and D/E ratio of 2.6x.
What type of stock is JPM?
JPM is classified as a "financial" in our framework. Financial sector override: Financial Services
What do Wall Street analysts say about JPM?
22 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $332.00 for JPM, representing +6.3% upside. Targets range from $295.00 to $391.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in JPM?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for JPM is 6.85:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 6.85:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +38.5%, with bull case upside of +68.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for JPM?
JPM is in a bullish trend. Price ($312.47) is 3.4% above SMA 200 ($302.25). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 51/100.
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Last updated: May 4, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.