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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Stock Analysis

Score B

Financial · Grade B · Bullish

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

$312.47

Fair Value

$260.34

-16.7%

Conviction

7/10

Quality

B

Classification

Financial

Investment Thesis

Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.

High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.

For New Investors

Price above modeled value range

For Current Holders

Quantitative score: neutral

Buy if

  • Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
  • Bull scenario catalysts materialize
  • Market-wide correction creates opportunity

Sell if

  • Bear scenario triggers occur
  • Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
  • Better alternatives emerge

Valuation

Fair Value estimate: $260.34 (-16.7%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.

PEG-Based EPS

$278.31

FCF DCF Model

$286.75

Blended Fair Value

$260.34

Confidence

High

Methods

P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount

Quality Analysis

B

75/120 points

Investable

ROE (3Y Avg)

15.9%

ROIC-WACC Spread

-5.5%

D/E Ratio

2.6x

Current Ratio

0.5x

Interest Coverage

1x

FCF Positive Years

2/3

Quality Flags

  • Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
  • Strong ROE: 15.9%
  • Low profitability margins
  • Earnings declining

Market Sentiment

Wall Street Consensus

$332.00

+6.3% Upside

22 analysts

Range: $295.00$391.00

Rating: Buy

Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.

Trend & Technical

Bullish

Price ($312.47) is 3.4% above SMA 200 ($302.25). Bullish trend confirmed.

Technical Score51/100

Tech Score 51/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.

Risk & Reward

Asymmetry Ratio

6.85:1

Expected Return

+38.5%

Bull Upside

+68.5%

Bear Downside

-10.0%

Excellent asymmetry: 6.85:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.

Verdict: Very Favorable

Scenario Analysis

Bear

Base

Bull

Buy Zone & Action Plan

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Technical Analysis

RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the fair value of JPM?

Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is $260.34. This is calculated by blending P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.

Is JPM a buy, sell, or hold?

JPM currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 7/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.

Is JPM a high-quality stock?

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has a quality grade of B (75/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 15.9%, ROIC-WACC spread of -5.5%, and D/E ratio of 2.6x.

What type of stock is JPM?

JPM is classified as a "financial" in our framework. Financial sector override: Financial Services

What do Wall Street analysts say about JPM?

22 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $332.00 for JPM, representing +6.3% upside. Targets range from $295.00 to $391.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.

What are the risks of investing in JPM?

The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for JPM is 6.85:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 6.85:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +38.5%, with bull case upside of +68.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.

What is the current trend for JPM?

JPM is in a bullish trend. Price ($312.47) is 3.4% above SMA 200 ($302.25). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 51/100.

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Last updated: May 4, 2026 · Framework version 3.7

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.