McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) Stock Analysis
Score BValue · Grade C · Bearish
$47.18
$49.97
+5.9%
8/10
C
Value
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading near modeled fair value. No strong quantitative signal.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $49.97 (+5.9%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$43.11
FCF DCF Model
$61.30
EV/EBITDA
$33.50
Blended Fair Value
$49.97
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
67/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
14.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.7%
D/E Ratio
0.7x
Current Ratio
0.7x
Interest Coverage
6x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -0.7pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.7x (8/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.70 (4/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$72.00
+52.6% Upside
13 analysts
Range: $67.00 — $85.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($47.04) is 24.6% below SMA 200 ($62.43). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 41/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.41:1
Expected Return
+8.3%
Bull Upside
+32.3%
Bear Downside
-13.4%
Good asymmetry: 2.41:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MKC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is $49.97. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is MKC a buy, sell, or hold?
MKC currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 8/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is MKC a high-quality stock?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated has a quality grade of C (67/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 14.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.7%, and D/E ratio of 0.7x.
What type of stock is MKC?
MKC is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low P/E: 7.7x, High dividend: 3.9%, Mature growth: 2.5%, Dividend paying: 3.9%, Strong ROE: 27.3%
What do Wall Street analysts say about MKC?
13 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $72.00 for MKC, representing +52.6% upside. Targets range from $67.00 to $85.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in MKC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MKC is 2.41:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.41:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +8.3%, with bull case upside of +32.3% and bear case downside of -13.4%.
What is the current trend for MKC?
MKC is in a bearish trend. Price ($47.04) is 24.6% below SMA 200 ($62.43). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 41/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.